乌克兰开始袭击俄罗斯油轮，黑海舰队无力护航

Core Viewpoint - The recent drone attacks by Ukraine on the oil tankers "Kairos" and "Vilat" near the Turkish Strait may signify a new phase in the conflict, where Ukraine directly targets Russia's "shadow fleet" to weaken its oil export capabilities [3][26]. Group 1: Attack Details - On November 28, Ukraine's drones attacked the oil tankers "Kairos" and "Vilat," causing significant damage [3][26]. - The attacked tankers are part of Russia's "shadow fleet," which was formed to circumvent sanctions by modifying old tankers and frequently changing their flags and ownership [6][29]. Group 2: Economic Implications - Oil exports are one of the few remaining economic lifelines for Russia, and disrupting this channel could make the war increasingly difficult for them [6][29]. - Ukraine's recent attacks, including those on Novorossiysk, aim to increase pressure on Russia by targeting its critical oil export routes [6][29]. Group 3: International Reactions - Only three countries protested the attacks: Russia, Kazakhstan, and Turkey. Kazakhstan's protest is due to its reliance on Russian ports for 80% of its oil exports [8][31]. - Turkey's protest is seen as a routine response, as the attack occurred in its exclusive economic zone, posing threats to navigation, property, and the environment [9][31]. Group 4: Military Context - Russia's Black Sea Fleet is currently underperforming, with limited naval capabilities and a lack of air superiority in the region [12][25]. - The fleet consists of outdated vessels, including two 1135.6M-class frigates and several smaller ships, which are insufficient for effective escort duties without land-based air support [14][45]. Group 5: Future Outlook - Ukraine may escalate its attacks to completely block Russia's oil exports from the Black Sea, potentially leading to a more challenging situation for Russia [10][32]. - Russia's options to change the situation rely heavily on military force, but the current state of its Black Sea Fleet limits its effectiveness [12][34].