Xin Lang Cai Jing·2025-12-03 06:33Core Viewpoint - China National Airlines is the only flag carrier in China and has entered the top tier of global aviation transport companies, with a broad international route network and a balanced domestic and international presence [1][2] Company Overview - China National Airlines was established in October 2002 through the merger of China International Airlines, China Aviation Corporation, and China Southwest Airlines [2] - The company primarily engages in air passenger services, with passenger business accounting for nearly 90% of total revenue under normal circumstances, projected to be 91% in 2024 [2] - Revenue for 2024 is expected to reach 166.699 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.14%, with a gross profit margin of 5.11% [2] - For the first three quarters of 2025, revenue is projected at 129.826 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.31%, with a gross profit margin of 7.06% [2] Industry Insights - Over the past 15 years, the aviation passenger transport volume has increased by 172.8%, with ticket prices gradually becoming market-driven [3] - The three major airlines in China (Air China, China Eastern Airlines, and China Southern Airlines) accounted for 62.64% of total transport turnover in 2024 [3] - Domestic passenger transport volume is expected to reach 730 million in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 17.86%, marking a historical high, while cargo transport volume is projected at 8.983 million tons, up 22.15% [3] - Key factors influencing the industry include: - Aircraft supply: The growth rate of China's civil aviation fleet is showing a "step-down" trend, affected by global supply chain disruptions and reduced delivery capabilities of major aircraft manufacturers [3] - Travel demand: There is still room for improvement in per capita flight frequency in China compared to developed countries, alongside a stable increase in per capita GDP and a booming tourism market [3] - Oil prices and exchange rates: These are critical factors affecting airline profitability, with the average price of aviation kerosene in the first ten months of 2025 at $86.01 per barrel, down 10.90% year-on-year [3] Valuation - Projected revenues for the company from 2025 to 2027 are 174.715 billion yuan, 188.020 billion yuan, and 205.245 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 4.8%, 7.6%, and 9.2% respectively [4] - Expected net profits attributable to shareholders are 1.561 billion yuan, 6.503 billion yuan, and 10.265 billion yuan for the same period, with EPS of 0.09, 0.37, and 0.59 yuan per share [4] - Price-to-book ratios are projected to be 3.2, 2.8, and 2.3 for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [4]