Core Viewpoint - BYD's November sales reached 480,000 units, showing a month-on-month decline of 5.3% but a year-on-year increase of 8.7% [1] - Cumulative sales from January to November totaled 4.182 million units, representing a year-on-year growth of 11%, with overseas sales accounting for 913,000 units, or 22% of total sales [1] Sales Performance - November domestic sales were 348,000 units, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 27% and a year-on-year decrease of 3% [1] - Cumulative domestic sales for the year reached 3.269 million units, showing a year-on-year increase of 1.1% [1] - November overseas sales were 132,000 units, indicating a month-on-month increase of 326% and a year-on-year increase of 57% [1] - Cumulative overseas sales for the year reached 913,000 units, representing a year-on-year growth of 182% [1] Future Projections - The company expects total sales for the year to be between 4.7 million and 4.9 million units, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 10-15% [1] - Export sales are projected to reach 1.05 million units, with a significant year-on-year growth of 152% [1] Pricing and Profitability - The average selling price (ASP) is expected to increase due to higher prices in high-end and overseas markets [1] - Battery installations in November increased by 23%, with external battery supply continuing to grow significantly [1] Earnings Forecast - The company has revised its net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 to 35 billion, 50.9 billion, and 66.4 billion yuan, respectively, down from previous estimates of 45 billion, 58.9 billion, and 71 billion yuan [1] - The revised profit forecasts indicate year-on-year changes of -13%, 45%, and 30% for the respective years [1] - Corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios are projected at 25x, 17x, and 13x for 2025, 2026, and 2027 [1] Investment Rating - The company maintains a "Buy" rating with a target price of 140 yuan for 2026, based on a PE of 25x [1]
研报掘金丨东吴证券:维持比亚迪“买入”评级,目标价140元