摩根资产管理发布《2026年全球市场展望》于AI热潮与全球变局中探寻均衡配置之道

Core Insights - The report by Morgan Asset Management highlights a complex yet opportunity-rich environment as investors approach 2026, driven by AI technology and influenced by global trade and geopolitical dynamics [1] Economic Outlook - The global economy is expected to exhibit a "strong first, weak later" growth pattern, with different economies showcasing their unique narratives [1] - China is entering the first year of its "15th Five-Year Plan," focusing on "de-involution" and industrial upgrades, which are expected to foster new growth momentum [1] - The U.S. may experience moderate growth as fiscal stimulus effects wane, with the pace of monetary policy shifts being a critical variable [1] - Europe faces a delicate balance between fiscal expansion and debt discipline [1] - Emerging markets in Asia are poised to benefit from deep integration into the global AI supply chain, presenting unique development opportunities [1] Investment Strategy - Future investment returns will increasingly depend on a profound understanding of global growth disparities and policy rhythms, alongside flexible cross-market allocation capabilities [2] - Morgan Asset Management emphasizes the importance of global allocation capabilities, leveraging its research network and local insights to identify high-quality companies with long-term growth potential [2] - Key sectors for investment include technology, industrials, communication services, and materials, with a focus on companies that can translate technology into business value, such as AI firms and traditional industry leaders undergoing digital transformation [2] AI and Market Dynamics - The rapid development of AI applications is significantly increasing spending on software, hardware, and cloud resources, creating opportunities for tech providers while raising concerns about infrastructure bottlenecks and rising costs [3] - AI is expected to disrupt traditional business models, with the rise of physical AI applications like autonomous vehicles and robots further expanding its impact [3] - Investors are advised to discern which AI models and large-scale cloud service providers are likely to succeed [3]