Colder US Temps Lift Nat-Gas Prices

Core Insights - Natural gas prices in the US have reached a nearly 3-year high due to expectations of colder temperatures increasing heating demand [1] - The EIA has raised its forecast for US natural gas production in 2025, indicating a bearish trend for prices [2] - Active US natural gas drilling rigs have increased, reaching a 2.25-year high, suggesting a potential increase in supply [6] Production and Demand - US dry gas production is currently at 111.8 billion cubic feet per day (bcf/day), reflecting a year-over-year increase of 6.9% [3] - Lower-48 state gas demand is at 111.6 bcf/day, up 2.7% year-over-year [3] - Estimated LNG net flows to US export terminals have decreased to 18.4 bcf/day, down 3.7% week-over-week [3] Inventory and Supply - Natural gas inventories fell by 11 bcf for the week ending November 21, which is a larger draw than the market consensus but less than the 5-year average [5] - As of November 21, natural gas inventories were down 0.8% year-over-year and 4.2% above the 5-year seasonal average, indicating adequate supply [5] - European gas storage is currently 76% full, compared to the 5-year seasonal average of 86% [5] Electricity Output - US electricity output rose by 5.33% year-over-year to 75,586 GWh for the week ending November 15, supporting natural gas prices [4] - Over the past 52 weeks, US electricity output increased by 2.9% year-over-year to 4,286,124 GWh [4]