Crude Prices Push Higher on Dollar Weakness and Reduced Russian Oil Exports

Core Insights - Crude oil and gasoline prices increased, with crude reaching a one-week high, influenced by a decline in the dollar index and reduced Russian crude exports [2][3] Group 1: Price Movements - January WTI crude oil closed up by $0.77 (+1.32%), while January RBOB gasoline rose by $0.00474 (+2.60%) [1] - Crude oil prices were supported by geopolitical tensions, particularly in Venezuela, and operational disruptions in Russian oil exports due to Ukrainian attacks [2][3] Group 2: Supply Dynamics - Russian crude oil exports fell to 1.7 million barrels per day (bpd) in the first half of November, marking the lowest level in over three years [4] - Ukrainian attacks have targeted Russian refineries, reducing Russia's refining capacity by 13% to 20% and limiting crude export capabilities by up to 1.1 million bpd [4] - The Caspian Pipeline Consortium, which exports 1.6 million bpd of Kazakhstan's crude, also faced disruptions due to pipeline damage [3] Group 3: OPEC and Market Estimates - OPEC+ announced plans to maintain production levels during Q1 of 2026, which supports current price levels [3] - OPEC revised its Q3 global oil market outlook from a deficit to a surplus of 500,000 bpd, driven by higher-than-expected US production and increased OPEC output [6] - The EIA adjusted its 2025 US crude production forecast to 13.59 million bpd, up from 13.53 million bpd [6] Group 4: Storage and Inventory - Crude oil stored on tankers that have been stationary for at least 7 days increased by 12% week-over-week to 124.64 million barrels, the highest level in nearly 2.5 years [5]