世间再无周金涛

Core Viewpoint - The legacy of Zhou Jintao and his predictions regarding the K-wave cycle continue to resonate in the Chinese investment community, highlighting the cyclical nature of economic opportunities and challenges [2][41]. Group 1: Zhou Jintao's Predictions and Theories - Zhou Jintao predicted that 2018 would be the darkest moment of the K-wave cycle, with 2019 marking the beginning of a new cycle, particularly for those born after 1985 [2][41]. - His theory, known as the "Tidal Cycle Theory," incorporates real estate cycles into the K-wave framework, suggesting that individuals have limited opportunities for wealth accumulation throughout their lives [47][48]. - Zhou's insights into the cyclical nature of the economy were informed by historical comparisons, particularly with Japan's economic development in the 1960s [42][43]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Economic Trends - Following Zhou's predictions, the global market has experienced increasing volatility, with significant events such as the U.S.-China trade tensions and financial deleveraging impacting market stability [3][39]. - The real estate market in China saw unexpected resilience, contrary to Zhou's predictions that it had peaked, while gold prices remained suppressed under a strong dollar [39][54]. - By 2025, the real estate prices in major cities had largely erased gains made since 2016, while international gold prices surged from under $1,100 per ounce in early 2016 to over $4,200 [39][54]. Group 3: The Evolution of Economic Theories - Zhou's theories have faced challenges in the past decade, as unexpected events have complicated the cyclical predictions he made, particularly regarding the resilience of the real estate market and the strength of the dollar [54][61]. - The emergence of the AI revolution and other technological advancements has shifted the focus of resource demand, indicating a departure from traditional economic cycles as predicted by Zhou [62][67]. - The K-wave cycle is now seen as more complex and less predictable, influenced by rapid technological changes and global economic shifts, diverging from Zhou's original framework [67][68].