幸运咖破万店 5.9元咖啡的逆袭与隐忧

Core Insights - Luckin Coffee has achieved a significant milestone by surpassing 10,000 stores globally, becoming the third domestic coffee chain to join the "10,000-store club" after Luckin and Kudi [1][8] - The rapid expansion from approximately 4,600 stores at the beginning of the year to over 10,000 in just 10 months indicates an average of more than 16 new stores opening daily, showcasing an impressive growth rate [1][8] Expansion Strategy - The journey to 10,000 stores is attributed to a well-calculated business strategy and market opportunities, with a pivotal shift occurring in 2020 when the brand clarified its "high-quality and affordable" positioning, targeting the lower-tier market and student demographics [2][9] - Leveraging the supply chain of its parent company, Mixue Ice Cream, Luckin Coffee benefits from significantly lower core raw material costs, with coffee beans sold to franchisees at no more than 70 yuan per kilogram, compared to the industry average of over 120 yuan per kilogram, representing a nearly 40% discount [2][9] - In May 2025, Mixue Group signed a 4 billion yuan procurement agreement for agricultural products, primarily coffee beans, further enhancing cost control and risk management capabilities [2][9] Franchise Model - The lightweight franchise model is a key driver of Luckin Coffee's rapid expansion, with a "no revenue sharing" policy for single-store franchises, significantly reducing management costs for franchisees [3][10] - The initial investment for a single store is approximately 127,000 yuan, which is lower than Kudi's 220,000 yuan and higher thresholds set by Luckin [3][10] - In 2025, Luckin Coffee introduced support policies in major cities, allowing for total reductions of up to 34,000 yuan per store, further lowering the entry barrier for franchisees [3][11] Product Strategy - Luckin Coffee has effectively captured the tastes of young consumers, with the "Coconut Latte" launched in March 2022 becoming a core bestseller, generating over 1 billion yuan in sales and exceeding 100 million cups sold by October 2025 [3][11] - The company launched 47 new products in 2025, continuously enriching its product line to meet diverse consumer demands [3][11] Challenges and Concerns - Despite the rapid expansion, Luckin Coffee faces unprecedented profitability pressures and operational challenges, particularly in first-tier cities where high rental costs are eroding franchisee profit margins [4][12] - The average daily sales required for breakeven in first-tier city stores is around 300 cups, significantly higher than the industry average, with many franchisees reporting unsatisfactory operating conditions [4][12] - Product quality and brand perception are identified as weaknesses, with younger consumers expressing dissatisfaction with the taste of Luckin's coffee compared to competitors like Luckin and Kudi [4][12] Supply Chain and Market Dynamics - Fluctuations in supply chain costs pose a threat to Luckin Coffee's low-price model, with Arabica coffee futures prices rising by 118.57% over the past year [5][13] - The reduction of delivery subsidies since July 2025 has intensified profitability pressures, particularly for brands reliant on online traffic [5][13] - Franchisees have raised concerns about inadequate regional protection policies, leading to internal competition and customer base dilution [5][13] Market Outlook - The coffee market's competitive landscape will not favor a single model but will require a dynamic balance between price, quality, scale, profitability, expansion, and sustainability [6][14]