美国“黑五”销售额新高！分析师却警告：火爆数据背后危机重重

Core Insights - The holiday shopping season in the U.S. has officially begun following a record-breaking "Black Friday" shopping week, but analysts warn of underlying economic vulnerabilities despite strong sales figures [1][2]. Group 1: Sales Data and Consumer Behavior - Online sales during the "Black Friday weekend" reached a record high of $44.2 billion, although comparable sales data for physical stores has not yet been released [2]. - Analysts suggest that the increase in sales is not due to heightened consumer enthusiasm but rather rising product costs, partly attributed to tariffs [2]. - Consumers are increasingly focused on purchasing discounted essential items rather than indulging in impulse buys, indicating a shift in shopping behavior [3]. Group 2: Economic Indicators and Consumer Sentiment - A significant portion of consumers are resorting to short-term debt for shopping, reflecting financial anxiety [3]. - A survey indicated that the percentage of U.S. consumers who feel capable of affording essential goods has decreased by 4 percentage points year-over-year [3]. - Over two-thirds of American shoppers reported that tariffs have influenced their shopping behavior, leading to either early purchases or reduced spending [3]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Experts suggest that while current shopping data may not indicate an imminent recession, they do reflect a gradual deterioration in household financial conditions [5]. - The proportion of shoppers with sufficient savings for emergencies is declining, indicating increased financial strain [5]. - Analysts from the Royal Bank of Canada noted that low- and middle-income consumers are feeling financially squeezed, with previous stable retail spending largely driven by pre-tariff purchasing behavior [5]. - The potential for consumer spending to weaken may become more apparent after the holiday shopping season, as consumers face additional pressures from tariffs and government aid suspensions [5][6].