Core Viewpoint - The international oil prices are under pressure due to significant developments in the Russia-Ukraine situation, but ongoing geopolitical risks and OPEC+ decisions are providing some support to prices. However, the long-term supply-demand outlook for crude oil remains oversupplied, which may limit price rebounds [1][6]. Oil Market Analysis - The oil market is currently experiencing a consensus on supply being ample, with geopolitical uncertainties still present but less impactful than before. Oil prices are fluctuating within a wide range due to a balance of bullish and bearish factors [5]. - The recent meeting of OPEC+ on December 1 confirmed the decision to maintain oil production quotas until 2026, which temporarily boosts market confidence. However, concerns about oversupply in the long term and potential influx of Russian oil if the conflict ends continue to exert pressure on prices [6][1]. Natural Gas Market Analysis - U.S. natural gas prices have been rising due to record export data and increased domestic demand, with futures trading above $4.9 per million British thermal units as of December 2 [1][7]. - In November, U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports reached a record high of 10.9 million tons, up from 10.1 million tons in October, driven by strong production and demand [8]. - Approximately 70% of U.S. LNG exports in November were directed to Europe, indicating a growing reliance on U.S. gas supplies amid colder temperatures and increased domestic consumption [9]. - Analysts predict a 75% increase in U.S. LNG exports by 2030, driven by the growth of the AI industry and its demand for electricity, which is expected to further elevate natural gas prices [9]. However, weak demand from Asia, particularly China, poses a structural challenge for U.S. LNG exporters [9].
【财经分析】供应压力与地缘风险并存 油价短期上下两难
Xin Lang Cai Jing·2025-12-03 08:08