光大期货1203热点追踪：燃料油重归弱势，价格创年内新低

Core Viewpoint - Fuel oil prices have declined significantly, reaching a new low for the year, influenced by geopolitical developments and supply expectations [2][6]. Group 1: Market Performance - On Tuesday night, fuel oil opened weakly and continued to decline, with a maximum intraday drop of over 3% on Wednesday, fully reversing last week's gains [2][6]. - The price of fuel oil has created a new annual low, reflecting market sentiment and supply dynamics [2][6]. Group 2: Geopolitical Influences - Recent meetings between Russian President Putin and U.S. envoy Whittaker, along with discussions on a U.S.-proposed peace plan for Ukraine, have contributed to expectations of easing geopolitical tensions [2][6]. - The U.S. Secretary of State indicated some progress in discussions, but noted that "more work needs to be done," which has led to a partial reduction in geopolitical risk premium in oil prices [2][6]. Group 3: Supply Dynamics - Russian oil product exports from the Black Sea port of Tuapse are expected to increase to 1.123 million tons in December, a 21.4% rise from the initially planned 895,000 tons in November [2][6]. - The closure of the East-West arbitrage window is anticipated to reduce the inflow of low-sulfur arbitrage cargoes to Singapore in December, although local inventories remain sufficient [7]. - The influx of low-sulfur fuel oil from Southeast Asia is increasing, ensuring that Singapore maintains ample inventory levels [7]. - The high-sulfur fuel oil market is also expected to face sufficient supply due to stable demand from the Middle East [7].