Mhy20251203油脂晚评：MPOB月报下周公布，市场预期库存将创近年高点

Market Overview - The Southern Peninsula Palm Oil Millers Association (SPPOMA) reported a 2.09% month-on-month decrease in Malaysia's palm oil yield for the period of November 1-30, 2025, while the extraction rate increased by 0.36% and production decreased by 0.19% compared to the previous month [1] - AmSpec indicated that Malaysia's palm oil exports for the same period were 1,263,298 tons, a decrease of 15.89% from 1,501,945 tons in the previous month [2] - SGS reported a more significant decline in palm oil exports, with a total of 779,392 tons for the same period, down 39.21% from 1,282,036 tons in the previous month [2] Supply and Demand Dynamics - Indonesia's statistics office reported that from January to October, the export volume of crude palm oil and refined palm oil reached 19.49 million tons [3] - A Reuters survey estimated that palm oil inventories in November would rise by 7.78% month-on-month to 2.66 million tons, the highest level since April 2019. The crude palm oil production is expected to be 1.98 million tons, a 3% decrease from the previous month, but still the highest recorded for November [3] Price Movements and Market Sentiment - The market is experiencing volatility due to strong rainfall affecting harvesting operations in major production areas, alongside general expectations of inventory accumulation. This has led to a tug-of-war between bullish and bearish sentiments in palm oil futures [5] - The upcoming official supply and demand data from the Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) on Wednesday is anticipated to influence market direction [5] Soybean Oil Market Activity - Indian buyers have secured significant soybean oil purchases for April to July 2026, a rare move aimed at countering rising palm oil prices. Patanjali Foods Ltd. revealed that traders have locked in over 150,000 tons of South American soybean oil per month during this period, taking advantage of a price difference of $20 to $30 per ton compared to palm oil [2]