Core Viewpoint - The gold market is currently experiencing a phase of balance between bullish and bearish sentiments, with significant fluctuations indicating market digestion of the Federal Reserve's anticipated interest rate cuts [1][5]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Gold prices showed a downward trend, opening lower and reaching a low of $4163 before closing at $4205, forming a small bearish candle on the daily chart [1][5]. - The market has priced in a high probability (87%-89%) of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December, shifting focus from "whether to cut" to "the path and pace of cuts" [1][5]. - Geopolitical tensions, including ongoing Russia-Ukraine negotiations and statements from Trump regarding drug trafficking, are contributing to market risk aversion [6]. Group 2: Technical Analysis - Following a drop, gold prices have rebounded, indicating a need for short-term technical adjustments while fundamental factors may continue to support bullish sentiment [2][6]. - Key technical levels to watch include resistance around $4230 and support near the 10-day moving average at $4165, with a preference for maintaining above the 10-day line [2][6]. - The current price action is characterized as a healthy correction after rapid gains, suggesting that the gold bull market is not over yet [2][6]. Group 3: Trading Recommendations - Suggested trading strategy includes short positions at $4227-$4228 with a stop loss at $4235 and targets set at $4180-$4160 [3][7]. - If prices stabilize above $4235, a shift to long positions may be considered [7]. Group 4: Upcoming Economic Data - Key economic data to be monitored includes the ADP employment figures, import price index, industrial production, and service sector PMIs scheduled for release on December 3 [4][8].
张津镭:黄金震荡中的攻守节奏 反弹承压做空
Xin Lang Cai Jing·2025-12-03 10:34