金丰来:金价震荡中的交易思维

Core Viewpoint - The current gold price remains above 4200, but there is a noticeable divergence in market sentiment, indicating cautious short-term trading behavior [1][4]. Market Sentiment and Economic Factors - Global stock market sentiment is generally positive, leading to a temporary decrease in safe-haven demand for gold, which suppresses its upward movement [1][4]. - The market is in a wait-and-see mode ahead of key economic data releases, resulting in a stagnant trading range for gold above 4200 [1][4]. - Multiple macroeconomic factors are influencing gold's current consolidation phase, reflecting market participants' ongoing digestion of future expectations [1][4]. Interest Rate Expectations - There is a growing market expectation for a rate cut next week, with nearly 90% probability for a 25 basis point reduction, which keeps the dollar weak and supports non-yielding assets like gold [1][4]. - Recent economic data indicates signs of slowing growth, and a dovish stance from Federal Reserve officials reinforces expectations for monetary easing [1][4]. - Potential candidates for high-level positions are perceived to favor a more accommodative policy approach, further deepening market expectations regarding future interest rate paths [1][4]. Global Risk Factors - Uncertainty in global risk has not dissipated, with several regional events causing fluctuations in risk appetite, although these events do not directly alter the global economic trajectory [2][5]. - Ongoing negotiations and communications have not yielded substantial progress, increasing investor sensitivity to potential risks [2][5]. - The interplay of macro expectations, market sentiment, and uncertainty contributes to gold's current "limited downside, limited upside" trading pattern [2][5]. Technical Analysis - Significant buying support was observed in the 4155 to 4150 range, indicating it remains a core defense line for bulls [2][5]. - If gold cannot establish itself above the strong resistance zone of 4245 to 4250, the upward trend may remain unconfirmed [2][5]. - A breakthrough in this resistance zone could lead gold to gradually approach resistance levels of 4264 to 4265 and 4277 to 4278, with a potential attempt to reach the 4300 mark [2][5]. Support Levels - If gold falls below 4200, there is a high probability that bulls will continue to support it, especially at the critical pivot point of 4150 [3][6]. - A significant breach of this support could see gold retreat to 4100 and further test the support range of 4075 to 4073, which is reinforced by technical indicators [3][6]. - This support area is considered the most robust technical support at this stage, and its stability is crucial for maintaining a bullish outlook on gold [3][6]. Conclusion - Gold is currently navigating a complex framework influenced by interest rate expectations, market sentiment, global uncertainties, and technical structures [3][6]. - The market's attitude towards the 4200 to 4150 range will be pivotal in determining the overall direction, with upcoming PCE data expected to provide a definitive signal for future movements [3][6].