黑色系区间震荡 合理控制风险为主

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in steel prices is primarily driven by market sentiment and cost factors rather than strong demand, indicating a transition to a phase of "price without market" [1][4] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The domestic steel market has shown a complex picture, with futures prices rising but spot prices stabilizing as the market cools down [1] - The November steel industry PMI from the National Bureau of Statistics and the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing is at 48%, down 1.2 percentage points month-on-month, indicating a contraction [1] - Seasonal demand is expected to decline further in December due to colder weather, leading to a high probability of continued seasonal downturn in steel demand [1] Group 2: Supply and Inventory - Although there were structural shortages in some northern markets, the situation has eased with continuous resource arrivals, and overall social inventory has not decreased [2] - The accumulation of inventory pressure is occurring despite some steel mills planning maintenance due to losses, creating a dual situation of "low production pressure" and "rising market inventory" [2] - The main contradiction in the current fundamentals lies between "high costs" and "weak demand," with high raw material prices limiting the potential for significant price declines [2] Group 3: Short-term Outlook - The market is entering a typical seasonal downturn, lacking strong drivers to break the current stalemate, with previous speculative gains based on macro expectations now largely realized [3] - Steel prices are likely to remain in a fluctuating pattern, supported by high costs but constrained by seasonal demand and accumulating inventory [3] - Market participants are advised to focus on risk management and profit realization rather than trend chasing, with a recommendation for traders to actively sell to reduce inventory levels [3] Group 4: Overall Market Sentiment - The foundation for the recent price increase is not solid, as seasonal effects and fundamental contradictions become more pronounced, leading to a return to a stable oscillation in the market [4] - The market's resolution of contradictions will require time, and a cautious approach with a focus on liquidity and risk avoidance is recommended [4]