中邮证券黄付生：美国经济转向科技驱动，宽松政策护航软着陆

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the structural transformation of the U.S. economy, with the technology sector becoming the main growth engine, particularly driven by advancements in artificial intelligence and digital technology, supported by gradual monetary easing policies [1][4]. Economic Structure - There is a stark contrast between the shrinking manufacturing sector and the rise of technology. In the early 1950s, manufacturing profits accounted for 60% of all industry profits, but this dropped to 17% from 2010 to 2020 due to factors like the decline of the "Rust Belt" and globalization [1][4]. - U.S. technology companies are significantly investing in artificial intelligence and computing infrastructure, leading to a digital technology arms race aimed at regaining a global technological edge. The total value of data centers under construction in the U.S. is approximately $40 billion, with a growth rate exceeding 400% since 2022, expected to surpass office buildings as a core driver of economic growth [1][4]. Technology Stock Valuation - The current bubble risk in U.S. tech stocks is considered manageable. The price-to-earnings ratio of the seven major U.S. tech companies is 36.8, lower than 47.3 in 2020 and significantly below the 80 times peak ratio of the "Four Horsemen" (Microsoft, Cisco, Oracle, Intel) before the 2000 internet bubble burst [2][5]. - The competitive landscape in AI and computing chips is diversifying, with multiple companies like Google, Microsoft, and Alibaba launching their own AI models, and Nvidia facing competition from AMD, Broadcom, Huawei, and others [5][6]. Monetary Policy Outlook - The Federal Reserve's anticipated interest rate cuts include three in 2025 and three to four in 2026, stabilizing around 3%, with a gradual decline to 2.5% by 2027, avoiding a return to zero interest rates. This strategy aims to maintain domestic liquidity, prevent large-scale capital outflows, alleviate pressure on small businesses, and support the stock market and the strength of the dollar [2][6]. - A new round of quantitative easing is expected to be initiated in early 2026, which could further boost market confidence and assist the U.S. economy in achieving a smooth landing [2][6].