中邮证券黄付生：制造业“K”型分化，居民财富将迎修复

Core Insights - The report presented by Huang Fusheng at the "2026 Postal Financial Forum" highlights China's economic recovery, driven by the "14th Five-Year Plan" focusing on modern industrial systems and high-tech sectors [3][8]. Group 1: Economic Recovery and Industrial Policy - China is building a modern industrial system under the "14th Five-Year Plan," with a focus on high-tech sectors showing significant performance [3][8]. - The plan prioritizes the construction of a modern industrial system and strengthening the real economy, aiming to "recreate a Chinese high-tech industry" over the next decade [3][8]. - Key strategies include enhancing traditional industries, addressing core technology challenges, and fostering strategic emerging industries like new materials and quantum technology [3][8]. Group 2: Manufacturing Sector Performance - The manufacturing sector exhibits a K-shaped recovery, with high-tech product exports growing faster than the overall export growth rate of 5.3% in the first ten months of 2025 [4][9]. - Profit growth in upstream manufacturing sectors like transportation equipment and non-ferrous metal smelting significantly outpaces that of downstream industries such as furniture and apparel [4][9]. - A-share non-financial companies reported a revenue increase of 0.9% year-on-year in Q3 2025, with net profits rising by 3.29% [4][10]. Group 3: Consumer Wealth and Spending Trends - Recovery of resident wealth is projected to take 3-5 years, with service consumption identified as a future growth area [5][10]. - In 2025, there remains a significant gap in resident wealth compared to the peak in 2021, but optimistic scenarios suggest recovery to previous levels by 2028 [5][10]. - The consumption structure indicates a saturation in goods consumption (15% of GDP) compared to major Western countries, while service consumption in healthcare and education is below global averages, indicating substantial growth potential [5][10].