张忆东今天前瞻2026：中国牛市风雨无阻，美股AI浪潮，很可能是一个刚性泡沫

Group 1 - The core theme of the speech is the optimistic outlook for the market despite short-term fluctuations, emphasizing the need for patience in a bull market [1][11][73] - The current macroeconomic context is characterized by "great power competition," with the U.S. relying on debt expansion to drive market prosperity, leading to a federal debt-to-GDP ratio exceeding 120% [2][12][74] - The U.S. is expected to continue its accommodative monetary policy, with strong demands for interest rate cuts, and a forecast of a weaker dollar in the coming year [3][75][130] Group 2 - The U.S. economy's long-term competitiveness is increasingly dependent on technology, particularly AI, which has contributed over 40% to the actual GDP [3][15][92] - In contrast, China is entering a historical opportunity with a healthy central government balance sheet, where the national debt is 34.5 trillion RMB, only 26% of GDP, providing significant policy maneuverability [4][26][103] - The real estate sector's negative impact on GDP is expected to diminish, with its contribution dropping from nearly 30% to around 13% [5][30][104] Group 3 - China is shifting focus towards "equity finance" and capital markets to revitalize its asset side and promote economic transformation [6][77] - The proportion of stocks held by the Central Huijin in equity ETFs has increased from 5%-8% before the 2023 Financial Work Conference to 37% in the first half of this year, indicating a strong commitment to stabilizing the market [7][36][78] - Looking ahead to 2026, there is significant potential for foreign capital to flow back into A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, driven by policies aimed at revitalizing the asset side [8][79][135] Group 4 - The capital market is expected to function as a long-term bull market, akin to the real estate market over the past two decades, with a focus on revitalizing financial and industrial sectors [8][52][126] - The A-share dividend index currently offers a yield of around 4%, while the Hong Kong high-dividend index yields approximately 6%, both exceeding the 10-year government bond yield of about 1.8% [56][128] - The anticipated return of foreign capital is likely to prioritize familiar technology narratives, including internet and AI sectors, as well as unique advanced manufacturing in China [60][135][138]