中邮证券黄付生：权益市场持续结构牛市，大宗商品酝酿超级周期

Core Viewpoint - The 2026 Chinese equity market is expected to enter a "long cycle, structural bull market," while the bond market will shift to a phase of volatility, and a super cycle for commodities may gradually begin, with global asset allocation focusing more on China [1][7]. Group 1: Chinese Equity Market - In the first 11 months of 2025, global major assets showed a comprehensive increase, with the South Korean Composite Index and COMEX gold rising over 60%, while the CSI 300 and Hang Seng Index increased over 25% [3][9]. - Foreign capital inflow into the Chinese stock market reached $50.6 billion in the first 10 months of 2025, significantly surpassing the total of $11.4 billion for the entire year of 2024 [3][9]. - The allocation ratio of global active mutual funds to Chinese stocks is currently at 6.4%, which is below the historical average of 9%, indicating significant room for growth [3][9]. - The equity allocation ratio of domestic wealth management products is only 2.1%, and if it rises to the average of 5.44% from 2017 to 2024, it could bring an additional 1.15 trillion yuan [3][9]. - The investment themes for 2024 Q3 to 2025 Q3 will focus on "innovative drugs + technology growth" (including innovative drugs, computers, and semiconductors), with energy storage and lithium batteries taking over in Q4 2025, and chemicals and consumer sectors entering a recovery cycle in 2026 [3][9]. Group 2: Bond Market - The rapid decline in bond market interest rates has ended, with the policy interest rate reduction space narrowing to 10-20 basis points, and the 10-year government bond yield expected to fluctuate between 1.5% and 1.9%, while the 30-year yield is projected to be between 1.8% and 2.3% [4][10]. - The bond market's single-sided bull market has concluded, and future trends are expected to be dominated by volatility [4][10]. Group 3: Commodity Market - Current commodity prices are at multi-decade lows relative to U.S. stocks, with the commodity equity ratio approaching historical lows, and gold has already begun to rise, along with noticeable increases in copper and aluminum prices [4][10]. - A new super cycle for commodities is anticipated, driven by global interest rate cuts, economic recovery, and factors such as the U.S. being the only source of growth in global oil production and OPEC+ reaching production limits [4][10].