超长债收益率行至年内高位，央行买债低于预期还是另有隐忧？

Group 1 - The bond market is under pressure, with long-term bond yields approaching their highest levels of the year, indicating a weakening "see-saw" effect between stocks and bonds as year-end approaches [2][4] - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) announced a net bond purchase of 50 billion yuan in November, which is higher than the previous month but still below market expectations, leading to increased market divergence [2][3] - The yield on the 30-year special treasury bond has risen to approximately 2.24%, reflecting a significant increase from earlier levels, indicating a widening yield spread [4][5] Group 2 - The bond market has seen a continuous decline, particularly in long-term bonds, with the yield on the 10-year treasury bond rising from 1.79% to around 1.84% since November [4][5] - Market sentiment has shifted, with some analysts suggesting that the recent bond purchases by the PBOC may not significantly benefit the bond market, as the focus should be on the underlying monetary policy rather than the quantity of bonds purchased [4][5] - The supply of long-term bonds has been notably high this year, which, combined with banks' profit requirements and the impact of new redemption fee regulations, may lead to increased volatility in the 30-year treasury bond market [7][8]