大摩周三论剑：新能源、锂电和交运板块最新更新！

Core Insights - The meeting focused on the development of electricity and renewable energy during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, emphasizing the production rhythm of thermal power, nuclear power, and wind-solar energy over the next five years. The renewable energy and energy storage sectors still present medium to long-term investment opportunities driven by policy support and market demand [1][2][3] Group 1: Electricity Development Direction - The electricity system will strengthen the construction of base-load energy, particularly thermal and nuclear power, before reaching carbon peak by 2030. A batch of approved thermal power projects is expected to be put into operation in the early years of the 14th Five-Year Plan [2][14] - Nuclear power is projected to enter a peak production period around 2027-2028, with approximately 10-12 nuclear units approved for construction each year since 2022 [2][14] - The pace of new energy (solar and wind) investment by state-owned enterprises and the five major power generation groups may slow compared to the previous five-year plan, with expected new installations in 2023 between 150 GW and 200 GW, a significant decline from previous years [2][15] Group 2: Wind and Solar Energy Insights - Wind energy is expected to maintain an annual installation rate of approximately 100-120 GW during the 14th Five-Year Plan, with offshore wind energy showing significant potential. The government is developing a three-year action plan for deep-sea wind development, which could positively impact offshore wind energy growth post-2027 [3][15] - The demand for solar and wind energy is anticipated to recover gradually from the second quarter of next year after a seasonal decline in demand during the fourth quarter of this year and the first quarter of next year [3][16] Group 3: Energy Storage and Investment Outlook - The enthusiasm for independent energy storage investments is high among local private enterprises, driven by the increasing share of renewable energy generation and the need for energy storage to smooth out peak and valley loads [4][17] - The independent energy storage market is expected to see a demand of approximately 150 GWh this year, with growth rates for next year projected between 50% and 100% [5][19] - The investment outlook for the electricity grid during the 14th Five-Year Plan is optimistic, with significant growth in grid investment expected to continue, potentially outpacing electricity demand growth [4][16] Group 4: Battery and Energy Chemical Sector - The energy storage sector is entering a commercial phase, with improved economic viability driven by favorable policies and market arrangements. The market sentiment has shifted positively, indicating a good year ahead for energy storage [7][20] - The long-term growth rate for the energy storage market is estimated at around 25% CAGR, with global energy storage demand expected to grow by at least 30% next year [8][21] - The demand for raw materials such as aluminum, copper, and lithium is expected to increase significantly due to the rapid growth of energy storage and battery needs [11][25] Group 5: Transportation Sector Insights - The aviation sector is experiencing a reduction in flight schedules, particularly on routes to Japan, with a decrease of approximately 17%-25% in overall flights, primarily affecting Chinese airlines [12][26]