Xin Lang Cai Jing·2025-12-03 13:20Core Insights - Google’s self-developed AI chip, TPU, is showing significant potential to challenge the existing market landscape as supply chain uncertainties are diminishing [1][3] - Morgan Stanley's latest report indicates a substantial increase in TPU production forecasts for 2027 and 2028, suggesting a possible shift towards large-scale sales to third parties [1][4] Production Forecasts - The production forecast for Google TPU in 2027 has been raised from approximately 3 million units to about 5 million units, representing an increase of around 67% [4][5] - For 2028, the forecast has surged from about 3.2 million units to approximately 7 million units, marking an astonishing increase of 120% [5] - This indicates that Google is expected to achieve a total supply of 12 million TPUs over the two years from 2027 to 2028, compared to a total of 7.9 million units over the past four years [5] Strategic Shift - The substantial increase in TPU production suggests that Google may be transitioning from a "self-use" model to directly competing with major AI chip manufacturers [5][6] - This potential strategy shift could position Google as a direct hardware seller in the high-margin AI chip market, moving away from being merely a consumer and service provider [5][6] Financial Implications - Morgan Stanley estimates that each sale of 500,000 TPU chips could generate approximately $13 billion in revenue and $0.40 in earnings per share (EPS) for Google in 2027 [3][6] - If the TPU sales strategy is successfully implemented, even a small portion of the production could lead to significant revenue and profit growth, potentially reshaping market valuations for Google [6]