【国信非银·深度】支撑养老体系，引入长期活水——中国年金体系研究暨“寻找中国保险的Alpha”系列之四

Core Insights - The second pillar of pension, primarily consisting of enterprise annuities and occupational annuities, is crucial for addressing aging population challenges and enhancing national pension security [1][11] - The development of enterprise and occupational annuities is seen as a necessary transition from a single state responsibility to a tripartite responsibility shared among the state, enterprises, and individuals [1][11] - The recent implementation of personal pension systems and supporting policies has created a favorable environment for the expansion of the second pillar [1][11] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The enterprise and occupational annuity market is entering a phase of steady expansion, with occupational annuities achieving full coverage due to reforms in public sector pensions [2][3] - The investment management model for occupational annuities is centralized, ensuring safety and regulatory compliance, while enterprise annuities follow a decentralized decision-making approach [3][4] - The scale of occupational annuities has grown from 1.29 trillion yuan in 2020 to 3.11 trillion yuan in 2024, with a stable year-on-year growth rate of around 20% since 2022 [3][4] Group 2: Investment Strategies - Pension funds are increasingly entering the market, adopting a "barbell" investment strategy that balances stable cash flow assets with high-growth sectors like technology and manufacturing [4][5] - The proportion of equity investments in enterprise annuities is expected to rise from 10%-15% to 20%-25%, potentially adding around 500 billion yuan in equity investments [4][5] Group 3: Structural Challenges - The pension system faces imbalances, with the first pillar being dominant while the second pillar, particularly enterprise annuities, has low coverage rates [8][11] - As of the end of 2024, the total scale of enterprise annuities reached 3.64 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 14.11%, while occupational annuities reached 3.11 trillion yuan, growing at 21.48% [8][11] - The participation rate in enterprise annuities remains low, with only 3.24 million participants, representing less than 10% of the basic pension insurance participants [8][11] Group 4: Future Outlook - The expansion of enterprise annuities is expected to continue, particularly among small and medium-sized enterprises, supported by policies aimed at reducing participation barriers [27][28] - By the end of 2028, the scale of enterprise annuities is projected to reach 6.4 trillion yuan, with average annual growth rates of 15.1% for accumulated funds and 6.5% for participant numbers [27][28]