美联储12月决议前最后一份就业数据“爆冷”：11月“小非农”意外转负，支持降息预期

Group 1 - The latest ADP employment report indicates a surprising decrease of 32,000 jobs in the U.S. private sector for November 2025, significantly below the market expectation of an increase of 10,000 jobs, marking the lowest level since March 2023 [1] - Small businesses, defined as those with fewer than 50 employees, accounted for the majority of job losses in November, with a reduction of 120,000 jobs, highlighting the greater impact of economic slowdown on smaller enterprises [1] - Wage growth continued to slow in November, with both year-over-year increases for retained and job-switching employees declining, which may ease inflationary pressures while reflecting a shift in labor market dynamics [1] Group 2 - The disappointing ADP employment data strengthens market expectations for the Federal Reserve to consider further interest rate cuts, providing additional support for dovish market sentiment [2] - Despite some officials expressing doubts about the need for further easing, futures traders assign a nearly 90% probability that the Fed will lower the key interest rate by 25 basis points [2]