Micron's HBM-Driven DRAM Demand Rises: Can AI Keep Lifting the Growth?

Core Insights - Micron Technology, Inc. is experiencing significant growth driven by increased demand for high-bandwidth memory (HBM), particularly due to the expansion of artificial intelligence (AI) workloads across data centers [2][12] Financial Performance - In the fourth quarter of fiscal 2025, Micron's DRAM revenues increased by 68.7% year over year and 27% sequentially, reaching $8.98 billion [3] - DRAM bit shipments rose in the low-teens percentage range sequentially, while average selling prices increased in the low-double-digit percentage range during the same period [3] Product Development and Market Position - The growth in DRAM revenues is supported by the adoption of Micron's HBM3E and high-capacity DIMMs, with expectations for continued momentum in fiscal 2026 as AI workloads grow [4] - Micron is advancing its HBM business, preparing for a transition to HBM4, with early samples demonstrating industry-leading bandwidth and power efficiency [5] - The company has secured pricing agreements for most of its 2026 HBM3E supply, indicating strong revenue growth visibility [5] Supply Dynamics - Tight DRAM supply due to limited industry capacity additions and slowing node transitions is expected to enhance Micron's pricing power [6] - Broader demand from AI personal computers, smartphones, and automobiles is further supporting DRAM consumption [6] Market Outlook - Analysts project Micron's fiscal 2026 DRAM revenues to reach $45.49 billion, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 59% [7] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Micron's fiscal 2026 and 2027 earnings suggests year-over-year increases of 109.4% and 23.5%, respectively, with upward revisions in estimates over the past 30 days [17] Competitive Landscape - While there are no direct U.S. competitors listed on stock exchanges, Intel and Broadcom play significant roles in the HBM supply chain and AI hardware ecosystem [8] - Intel is integrating HBM into its AI memory chip portfolio, while Broadcom is developing custom AI accelerators for major tech companies [9][10] Stock Performance and Valuation - Micron's shares have surged approximately 184.6% year to date, outperforming the Zacks Computer – Integrated Systems industry's gain of 78.9% [11] - The company trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 13.01, significantly lower than the industry's average of 23.01 [14]