Vertex Up 9.2% in 3 Months: Should You Buy, Sell or Hold the Stock?

Core Viewpoint - Vertex Pharmaceuticals' stock has increased by 9.2% over the past three months, but this is significantly lower than the industry's 16.1% growth [1][2]. Financial Performance - Despite strong third-quarter results, Vertex's stock underperformed compared to its industry, with earnings and sales exceeding estimates but newer drugs Journavx and Casgevy missing expectations [3][8]. - The company has tightened its total revenue guidance for full-year 2025 from a range of $11.85-$12 billion to $11.9-$12.0 billion, indicating flat sequential growth in the fourth quarter [3][8]. Product Sales and Pipeline - Vertex maintains a dominant position in the cystic fibrosis (CF) market, treating nearly 75% of the 94,000 CF patients in the U.S., Europe, Canada, and Australia, with continued growth driven by Trikafta/Kaftrio and the launch of Alyftrek [5][8]. - The company is developing an mRNA therapeutic, VX-522, for CF patients who do not benefit from existing treatments, with ongoing clinical studies [6][8]. - Sales performance of newer products like Alyftrek, Journavx, and Casgevy has been mixed, with Journavx generating $32.9 million in the first nine months of 2025, but missing Q3 expectations [9][11]. - Casgevy's sales were $16.9 million in Q3, down 44.4% sequentially, and fell short of estimates, although Vertex expects over $100 million in revenues for Casgevy this year [13][14]. Pipeline Development - Vertex has a rapidly advancing mid- to late-stage pipeline targeting various diseases beyond CF, with five programs in pivotal development expected to lead to regulatory filings in 2026 and early 2027 [15][16]. - The company's kidney disease candidates, particularly povetacicept, are gaining investor attention, with a rolling BLA filing expected by the end of 2025 [16][17]. - Vertex faced setbacks with VX-993 and VX-264, leading to discontinuation of these programs due to failure to meet efficacy endpoints [17][18]. Valuation and Estimates - Vertex's shares trade at a price/earnings ratio of 21.93, higher than the industry average of 17.0, but below its five-year mean of 24.04 [19][20]. - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2025 earnings has increased from $17.82 to $18.30 per share, indicating a positive outlook [22]. Investment Outlook - Vertex's reliance on its CF franchise raises concerns, but the company is seen as a good investment due to strong financial performance and pipeline progress [23][24]. - Analysts remain optimistic about future growth in profits, with expectations for continued strength in CF sales despite a slight slowdown [25][26].