CMG Stock Down 35% in 6 Months: Buy the Dip or Brace for More Pain?

Core Insights - Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (CMG) shares have dropped 34.6% over the past six months, significantly underperforming the industry and the S&P 500, which increased by 9.3% and 17% respectively, indicating serious concerns about traffic trends, margin pressures, and a stressed customer base [1][22]. Factors Hurting Chipotle - A broad decline in spending among households earning under $100,000, which constitutes about 40% of Chipotle's total sales, has negatively impacted the company. This demographic is facing inflation, unemployment pressures, and slower wage growth, leading to reduced dining frequency [7][8]. - Chipotle has experienced multiple step-downs in traffic throughout 2025, with significant declines noted in February, May, August, and October. Despite promotional efforts, the core traffic trajectory remains negative, raising concerns about the macroeconomic environment [9]. - Rising inflation, particularly mid-single-digit inflation due to higher beef costs and new tariffs, is pressuring margins. Chipotle is not fully offsetting these costs with price increases, which is compressing restaurant-level margins [10]. - Operational inconsistencies, especially in digital order accuracy, have affected customer satisfaction. The shift in incentive structures has led to a decline in accuracy scores, impacting repeat business [11]. - Elevated operating costs, driven by wage inflation and increased marketing investments, have further squeezed profits. The company has invested heavily in promotions to drive traffic, which has widened cost pressures [12]. Factors Likely to Aid Chipotle - Despite current challenges, Chipotle maintains a competitive value proposition, with pricing 20-30% below fast-casual peers. The company has retained stable wallet share, indicating consumer loyalty [13]. - Menu innovation is a key strategy for attracting new customers. New offerings have exceeded expectations, and management plans to increase the frequency of limited-time offerings in 2026 [14]. - Digital initiatives have proven effective in boosting customer engagement and loyalty, with plans to enhance the rewards platform to bring back inactive customers [15][16]. - Chipotle's long-term growth strategy includes opening 350-370 new restaurants in 2026 and expanding internationally, which supports confidence in reaching a target of 7,000 North American locations [17]. Chipotle Estimate Revision - Earnings estimates for CMG in 2026 have been revised down from $1.42 to $1.22 over the past 60 days, with expected year-over-year growth of 4.9%. In comparison, competitors like Darden Restaurants and CAVA are projected to see higher growth rates of 7.1% and 11.6% respectively [18]. Valuation - Chipotle's stock is currently trading at a forward 12-month price-to-earnings ratio of 28.14, which is higher than the industry average of 23.73 and the S&P 500's 23.41, indicating that the stock remains at a premium despite recent declines [19].