央行连续两个月开展国债买卖操作12月资金面均衡可期

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has been actively managing liquidity through various policy tools, ensuring a balanced funding environment as it approaches the end of the year, despite potential fluctuations in the money market [1][2]. Group 1: Central Bank Operations - In November, the PBOC conducted net withdrawals of 556.2 billion yuan through 7-day reverse repos, while maintaining net injections of medium to long-term liquidity through MLF and reverse repos, totaling 500 billion yuan and 100 billion yuan respectively [2]. - The PBOC's continuous operations in the bond market, with a net injection of 50 billion yuan in November, indicate a supportive monetary policy stance aimed at stabilizing macroeconomic conditions for the fourth quarter and the first quarter of the following year [2][3]. Group 2: Market Conditions - The average R001 rate increased by 4 basis points to 1.43% in November, while the R007 rate remained stable around 1.50%. The DR001 and DR007 rates also saw slight increases, reflecting a generally balanced funding environment despite some volatility [3]. - Analysts expect that while funding fluctuations may increase towards the end of December, the PBOC's supportive measures will help maintain a stable and ample liquidity environment [3][4]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The anticipated issuance of government bonds in December is limited, and the PBOC's consistent supportive stance suggests that funding rates are unlikely to deviate significantly from policy rates [4]. - There is a cautionary note regarding potential short-term volatility as the year-end approaches, but overall expectations remain for a balanced and ample funding situation [4].