Economy and AI Push Make Shorting US Stocks Dangerous, 22V Says

Core Viewpoint - The strength of the American economy and enthusiasm for artificial intelligence (AI) are expected to support productivity and profits, making it unwise to bet against US stocks this month [1]. Economic Indicators - An increase in consumer spending and investments in AI is anticipated to bolster productivity, allowing firms to deliver necessary profits to drive stock prices higher [1]. - Despite recent volatility, companies are projected to grow profits by 12.5% over the next 12 months, indicating strong fundamentals [6]. Market Volatility - The S&P 500 Index experienced a decline of up to 5.1% from its October record before recovering, highlighting the risks associated with shorting a volatile market [2]. - US equity short sellers faced $80 billion in mark-to-market losses, erasing most of the nearly $95 billion in profits made earlier in the month [4]. Hedge Fund Activity - Hedge funds have significantly covered their positions on US equity indexes and exchange-traded funds, marking the largest such activity in five months [5]. Consumer Behavior - Consumer confidence has shown signs of weakening; however, spending on Black Friday increased by 4.1% year-over-year, suggesting resilience among US consumers despite economic concerns [6]. Federal Reserve Outlook - The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates in the upcoming policy meeting, which could stimulate economic activity [7].