航运期货：马士基12月下半月涨价，关注下半月涨价落地情况

Pricing Analysis - The pricing for shipping from Shanghai to Rotterdam varies across different alliances, with Maersk's prices ranging from $1435 to $2400 for December's second and third weeks [12] - The average price for the first half of December for MSC is $1485 to $2465, while for ONE it is $1735 to $2235 [12] - The Ocean Alliance's CMA has prices between $1435 and $2445 for the first half of December, with a significant increase in the second half [12] Supply Dynamics - The average weekly capacity for December is reported at 303,900 TEU, with specific weekly capacities for weeks 50 to 53 ranging from 256,000 to 336,300 TEU [13] - In January, the average weekly capacity is expected to be 332,400 TEU, with week 2 reaching 353,300 TEU [13] - There were four blank sailings in December and four TBNs in January, all from the Ocean Alliance [13] Contract Settlement Insights - The settlement prices for December contracts are becoming clearer, with the average prices for the first half of December adjusting downwards [13] - The expected SCFIS index for December 15 is around 1600-1650 points, with a slight increase anticipated for December 22 [13][14] Future Contract Expectations - The February 2026 contract may face significant expectation discrepancies, with the last trading day set for February 9, 2026 [14] - The settlement prices for the February contract will reflect the average of prices from late January, influenced by the timing of the Chinese New Year [14] Geopolitical Factors - The ongoing geopolitical situation in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden is affecting shipping routes, with Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd launching the Cape of Good Hope network due to safety concerns [12] - The potential reopening of the Suez Canal in 2026 could increase effective capacity and lower freight rates, impacting future contracts [15] Market Trends - The delivery of container ships remains high, with 243 vessels delivered in 2025, totaling a capacity of 1.985 million TEU [16] - The market is currently experiencing a mix of upward and downward pressures, with potential risks from economic fluctuations and supply chain disruptions [17]