多因素推动白银价格创新高

Core Viewpoint - The global silver price has reached a historical high, with a year-to-date increase of over 90%, outperforming gold, driven by supply-demand imbalances, Federal Reserve monetary policy, and significant capital inflows [1] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The core factor supporting the recent surge in silver prices is the persistent supply-demand gap in physical silver, with global silver production expected to decline to 820 million ounces by 2025, a 12% decrease from the peak in 2020 [1] - Major silver-producing countries like Mexico and Peru have seen production declines, while the supply of recycled silver is projected to grow only 1.2% to 197 million ounces by 2025, insufficient to meet the rising industrial demand [1] - The photovoltaic industry is anticipated to become the largest consumer of silver, with demand expected to reach 7,560 tons by 2025, doubling from 2022 and increasing its share of total silver demand from 20% to 55% [1][2] Investment Demand - Global silver investment demand, including silver bars, coins, and ETFs, is projected to reach 1.334 billion ounces in 2025, an 8.2% year-on-year increase, accounting for 37% of total silver demand and becoming a key support for silver prices [3] - The global silver ETF holdings have increased by over 500 tons in the past six months, indicating a strong influx of capital into the silver market [3] Market Conditions - The current silver market is characterized by high prices and volatility, with significant supply tightening observed in both the physical and futures markets [2] - Analysts predict that silver prices could stabilize above $55 per ounce in the fourth quarter of 2025 to the first quarter of 2026, with potential targets set as high as $60 to $65 per ounce by major investment banks [3]