转向“震荡市思维” 债基基金经理策略生变

Core Viewpoint - The bond market is experiencing significant fluctuations due to a lack of clear trading direction and heightened market anxiety, particularly influenced by real estate credit risk events and rumors regarding bond fund redemption fee reforms [1][2][3]. Market Conditions - The bond market has shown increased volatility, with institutions exhibiting signs of redemption and stop-loss behavior. Although there was some recovery in the latter half of the week, mid- to short-term bonds performed poorly [1][2]. - The total number of bond funds has decreased, with a reported decline of 1,338.91 million units and a total scale reduction of 1,043.22 billion yuan from September to October [3]. Fund Performance - Approximately 80% of the 3,567 open-end medium- to long-term bond funds experienced declines, with 16 funds dropping over 1%. About 40% of the 935 open-end short-term bond funds also saw decreases [2][3]. - Fund managers are facing dual pressures of scale and performance, with expectations for returns on medium- to short-term bond funds not exceeding 2 percentage points for the upcoming year [3]. Investment Strategy Adjustments - Fund managers are adjusting their investment strategies to prioritize liquidity management and risk control, moving away from a single-direction market mindset to a more value-focused investment approach [4]. - The current market environment is characterized by a stable yield range, with both upward and downward pressures on bond yields due to economic transitions [4]. Future Outlook - The consensus among fund managers is that the bond market will likely remain in a state of fluctuation for the foreseeable future, although there is a belief that the overall direction remains positive [5]. - The 10-year government bond yield is expected to fluctuate between 1.8% and 1.85%, with market movements likely following news developments in the absence of a clear trading theme [5].