美国“小非农”创两年半来最大降幅，小企业成就业寒冬重灾区

Group 1 - The latest ADP report indicates a surprising decline in private sector employment by 32,000 jobs in November, contrasting with market expectations of an increase of 10,000 jobs and a previous increase of 47,000 jobs in October [1][3] - Employment growth is projected to stagnate in the second half of 2025, with a downward trend in wage growth. The manufacturing, professional/business services, information, and construction sectors are particularly weak in hiring [3] - The goods-producing sector saw a total reduction of 19,000 jobs, with construction losing 9,000 jobs and manufacturing losing 18,000 jobs, while only natural resources and mining added 8,000 jobs [3] Group 2 - In the services sector, trade/transportation/utilities added 1,000 jobs, education and health services added 33,000 jobs, and leisure and hospitality added 13,000 jobs. However, the information sector lost 20,000 jobs, financial services lost 9,000 jobs, and professional/business services lost 26,000 jobs [3] - Employment changes by company size show that small businesses (1-49 employees) lost 120,000 jobs, while medium-sized businesses (50-499 employees) gained 51,000 jobs, and large businesses (500 or more employees) gained 39,000 jobs [3] - ADP's Chief Economist Nela Richardson noted that the job market remains volatile due to cautious consumer spending and an uncertain macroeconomic environment, with the contraction in hiring primarily driven by small business shrinkage [3] Group 3 - The ADP report serves as the last employment data before the Federal Reserve's meeting on December 9-10, with market expectations indicating a nearly 90% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut [4] - There is a divergence in views among Federal Reserve officials, with some believing that rate cuts are necessary to prevent further deterioration in the labor market, while others are concerned that additional cuts may exacerbate inflation [4]