美国《财富》杂志：分析显示，美今年关税收入远低于预期

Core Insights - The analysis by the UK Pantheon Macroeconomics indicates that US tariff revenues are significantly lower than the White House's initial expectations, with actual revenues falling short by approximately $100 billion [1] - US Treasury Secretary Yellen had previously predicted tariff revenues could exceed $500 billion, potentially reaching $1 trillion, but as of November 25, the revenue from tariffs and consumption taxes was only $400 billion [1] - The average effective tariff rate (AETR) is currently estimated at 12%, which is considerably lower than the approximately 20% anticipated earlier this year [1] Factors Contributing to Revenue Shortfall - The primary factor for the lower-than-expected AETR is the deterioration of US-China relations, which has led to a significant reduction in trade activities with China, thereby shrinking the tax base [1] - The second factor is the compliance levels under the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), which have exceeded expectations, as companies in Canada and Mexico are now more focused on proving their products meet origin rules [1] - The third factor is the surge in imports of tax-exempt goods this year, particularly personal computers and advanced chips for artificial intelligence, which currently account for 9% of total US imports, up from 4% projected for 2024 [1]