Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is entering a new bullish phase supported by four key dimensions: policy, valuation, earnings, and liquidity [1][6][8] Group 1: Policy Support - Coordinated policy efforts are creating a "safety net" for the market, with growth stabilization policies and capital market reforms providing clear expectations and institutional guarantees for the year-end market [1][6] - The upcoming Central Economic Work Conference is expected to enhance counter-cyclical adjustments and cross-cycle regulatory policies, injecting momentum into the real economy and stabilizing the macro environment for the capital market [1][6] - The proposal to improve the inclusiveness and adaptability of the capital market in the 15th Five-Year Plan is expected to effectively counter external uncertainties and provide a solid policy foundation for the market's upward movement [1][6] Group 2: Valuation - Current A-share valuations are at historical lows, highlighting "cost-effectiveness" and providing a strong incentive for market entry [2][6] - The low valuation levels offer ample safety margins for capital allocation, serving as a crucial foundation for the market's upward trajectory [2][6] Group 3: Economic Fundamentals - The resilience of the real economy and improving profitability are fundamental supports for the market's upward movement, with GDP growth of 5.2% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2025 [3][7] - Continuous optimization of the economic structure is providing high-quality growth targets for the capital market, with high-tech manufacturing value-added increasing by 9.6% year-on-year in the same period [3][7] Group 4: Liquidity - Ample and precise liquidity injections are essential for the market's activation, with the People's Bank of China employing various tools to maintain long-term liquidity and reduce financing costs [3][7] - The monetary policy is focused on "precision, coordination, and balance," directing financial resources towards key areas such as technological innovation and green development, ensuring that funds effectively support economic recovery and corporate profitability [3][7] Group 5: Overall Market Outlook - The interplay of policy support, low valuations, improving earnings, and liquidity creates a comprehensive logic chain for the long-term positive outlook of the A-share market [8] - Despite potential short-term volatility, the multi-layered safety net formed by these four dimensions provides solid assurance for the ongoing market momentum [8]
四重支撑勾勒A股市场 长期向好运行脉络
Xin Lang Cai Jing·2025-12-03 23:16