Dollar Firms With T-Note Yields

Economic Outlook - The OECD has raised its US 2025 GDP forecast to +2.0% from +1.8% and the Eurozone's forecast to +1.3% from +1.2%, while keeping the global GDP forecast unchanged at +3.2% [3] - The global economy is reportedly managing trade tariffs better than expected, driven by strong investment in artificial intelligence and supportive fiscal and monetary policies [3] Currency Movements - The dollar index is up slightly by +0.05%, supported by higher T-note yields, which reached a 1.5-week high at 4.11% [1] - The euro is down by -0.05% against the dollar, but losses are limited due to a stronger-than-expected Eurozone CPI increase of +2.2% y/y [5][6] - The yen is up by +0.43% against the dollar, supported by a rise in Japan's consumer confidence index to a 19-month high [7] Interest Rate Expectations - The swaps market indicates a 96% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut by the FOMC at the upcoming meeting on December 9-10 [2][4] - The ECB is expected to maintain its current policy stance, with only a 2% chance of a rate cut at the December 18 meeting [6]