两年半最差！“小非农”意外利空，美联储鹰派是否会让步

Core Viewpoint - The probability of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates next week is approaching 90%, driven by significant job losses in the private sector, particularly among small businesses, indicating a slowdown in hiring activity [1][6]. Employment Market Cooling - The ADP report indicates a reduction of 32,000 jobs in the last month, marking the largest decline since March 2023, with small businesses losing 120,000 jobs, attributed to increased costs from import tariffs [2][6]. - Medium-sized businesses added 51,000 jobs, while large businesses increased by 39,000 jobs, highlighting a disparity in employment trends across business sizes [2]. Upcoming Employment Report - The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics is set to release the November employment report on December 16, which will include October's non-farm payroll data, although the unemployment rate for October remains unknown due to a government shutdown [5]. - The unemployment rate rose to 4.4% in September, the highest in four years, indicating ongoing challenges in the labor market [5]. Federal Reserve Policy Outlook - The Federal Reserve is expected to consider the ADP report in its upcoming decision, as the government shutdown has increased the report's significance [6][7]. - Despite the labor market's weakness, some institutions believe the situation is not as dire as the ADP data suggests, with low layoff numbers indicating a "no hiring, no firing" market trend [7]. - Market expectations for a rate cut are strong, with futures pricing indicating a nearly full probability of a rate reduction next week [7][9]. Inflation Concerns - Inflation remains a focal point for future policy discussions, with import tariffs contributing to cost pressures, although the overall impact on inflation has been moderate [10]. - The expectation that trade partners would lower prices to alleviate cost pressures has not materialized, leading to concerns about the transference of tariff costs to consumers [10].