转折！10月纯苯进口量环比增14%，后市怎么走？

Core Viewpoint - In October, China's pure benzene imports rebounded significantly to 496,800 tons, marking a 14.18% month-on-month increase, reversing a three-month decline and providing a boost to the domestic chemical market [2][8] Group 1: Import Dynamics - The increase in October's pure benzene imports was primarily driven by South Korea, which contributed 43,000 tons of the total increase of 62,000 tons compared to September [2][8] - The decline in imports from South Korea during the third quarter was due to reduced supply caused by maintenance at major facilities, which has now improved as maintenance activities concluded [2][8] - The shift in global aromatic trade flows, particularly due to the closure of the US-Korea arbitrage window, has led South Korea to redirect its exports towards China [2][8] Group 2: Market Influences - The Asian gasoline market's changes have indirectly supported the increase in pure benzene imports, as a decrease in gasoline demand allowed aromatic resources to shift back to chemical products [3][9] - Domestic market demand expectations have also played a role in the rebound of pure benzene imports, alongside external supply increases [3][9] Group 3: Supply and Demand Outlook - Analysts indicate that the fourth quarter will maintain a "strong supply, weak demand" scenario for pure benzene, with prices facing significant pressure [4][10] - The domestic pure benzene balance sheet suggests an ongoing supply surplus, influenced by reduced demand from the caprolactam industry and uncertainties regarding maintenance schedules for major production facilities [5][10] - Despite the recent rebound in imports, forecasts suggest that the upward trend may not be sustainable, with potential declines in November due to shifts in South Korean aromatic supply towards the US [11]