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Core Insights - The copper market is experiencing intense competition due to tight supply, with copper prices reaching historical highs on December 3, 2023 [2][4][5] - The significant increase in COMEX copper inventory, which has surged over 300% compared to the previous year, indicates a strategic accumulation of copper in the U.S. [4][6] - The global copper supply chain is fragile, influenced by various factors including production challenges from major suppliers like Codelco and geopolitical issues [5][6] Price Movements - On December 3, 2023, LME three-month copper prices hit a record high of $11,448.5 per ton, marking a 2.72% increase [4] - Shanghai copper futures also reached a historical peak, surpassing 90,000 yuan per ton, with a 1.97% rise [4] - Other metals like tin also saw significant price increases, with LME tin rising 4.38% to $40,750 per ton [4] Supply Chain Dynamics - Codelco's proposed annual contract premium for refined copper for 2026 has surged to $335-$350 per ton, a staggering increase of over 275% from the previous year [5] - The ongoing tightness in global copper supply is exacerbated by production stagnation in Chile, delays in African projects, and export restrictions in Indonesia [5][6] U.S. Market Behavior - U.S. funds have been aggressively accumulating copper, with COMEX copper inventory exceeding 400,000 tons, representing 62% of the total inventory across major exchanges [6] - The strategic accumulation of copper in the U.S. is seen as a response to potential tariffs and reflects broader concerns about global supply vulnerabilities [6][9] Future Outlook - Analysts predict that copper prices may continue to rise, especially if the Federal Reserve lowers interest rates in December, which could further stimulate demand in emerging sectors like AI and renewable energy [8][9] - The potential for reduced production from smelting companies in response to low processing fees could tighten supply further, driving prices up [9]