陷入“增产不增收”困境 磷酸铁锂行业探寻“反内卷”新路径

Core Insights - The lithium iron phosphate (LFP) material industry is facing challenges such as overcapacity and homogenized competition, leading to significant price declines and profit pressures for related companies [1][2][4] Industry Overview - LFP has become a mainstream technology in global power and energy storage batteries, with China's lithium-ion battery export value reaching $55.38 billion, a year-on-year increase of 26.75% [2] - The domestic market for new energy vehicles has a penetration rate exceeding 45%, and energy storage installations have surged by 60% year-on-year, with the overall industry output value expected to surpass 3 trillion yuan [2] Current Challenges - Since 2022, the LFP material industry has been in a "production increase without revenue increase" dilemma, with a projected production capacity of nearly 4.7 million tons in 2024, but actual output only around 2.3 million tons, resulting in a capacity utilization rate of about 50% [2][3] - The price of LFP materials has plummeted from 173,000 yuan per ton at the end of 2022 to 34,000 yuan per ton, a decline of 80.2%, leading to over 36 months of continuous losses for the industry [2][4] Cost Structure and Profitability - A cost index for the LFP material industry has been established, revealing that the main material costs account for 35%-40% of total costs, with energy and direct costs each around 19% [4] - Only 16.7% of companies in the industry are profitable, significantly lower than other lithium battery materials, indicating urgent financial risks [4] Recommendations for Improvement - Experts suggest using the cost index to rebuild market pricing logic and curb "involutionary" competition, focusing on innovation and quality over scale [5][6] - Strategies for cost reduction include establishing long-term procurement partnerships, optimizing production processes, and researching alternative materials to lower main material costs [6][7] Collaborative Innovation - The industry is encouraged to focus on collaborative innovation, particularly in high-pressure lithium iron phosphate and cobalt-free materials, to balance performance enhancement with cost control [7] - The association plans to create a detailed cost database across various segments to promote a shared understanding of costs and risks, aiming to reverse the detrimental effects of overcapacity and price competition [7]