散户大军引爆白银牛市 59美元只是起点？

Core Viewpoint - The silver market is experiencing significant volatility, with prices recently reaching historical highs, driven by strong retail investor demand and supply constraints [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of December, silver prices have maintained a parabolic upward trend, trading around $58.63 per ounce, with a peak of $59.65 per ounce earlier [1]. - Silver has seen a remarkable increase of over 100% year-to-date, a rare occurrence in precious metals history [1]. - In November, silver futures rose by 18.6%, marking the best monthly performance since July 2020, largely due to retail investors' increased participation [3]. Group 2: Trading Activity - The average daily trading volume of standard silver futures reached 108,000 contracts, a 22% increase compared to November 2024 [2]. - The average trading volume for micro silver futures surged to 75,000 contracts, a 238% increase year-over-year [2]. Group 3: Demand and Supply Dynamics - Analysts highlight that the recent surge in silver prices is primarily driven by retail investor demand, particularly through micro contracts [3]. - The ongoing supply constraints, coupled with strong demand, are expected to provide long-term upward momentum for silver prices [1]. Group 4: Technical Analysis - Silver prices are attempting to hold above the resistance level of $58.60-$58.80 but are showing signs of losing momentum [4]. - A drop below $56.50 could lead silver prices towards the support level of $52.60-$52.80 [4].