The Most Boring Oil Month in Years Sets the Stage for a High-Stakes December

Core Insights - The oil market is currently seeking new catalysts after a stagnant month, with geopolitical tensions failing to impact prices significantly [1][9] Price Forecasts - Analysts predict an average price of $62 per barrel for 2026, a decrease of $10 from earlier forecasts [3] - The IEA anticipates a significant oversupply of 4.2 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2026, while conservative estimates suggest a stock-build of 0.5 million b/d [3] Market Dynamics - US shale output is expected to decline next year, with WTI projected to average $59 per barrel, which is $3-4 below the breakeven cost for new Permian wells, potentially stabilizing prices [4] - High freight costs have limited the influx of Atlantic Basin oil into Asia, but a negative Brent-Dubai EFS spread indicates that easing freight costs may soon change this [4] Market Movements - Chevron is expanding its operations by entering two oil and gas exploration blocks in Nigeria, covering 2,000 km² [6] - Targa Resources has agreed to acquire Stakeholder Midstream for $1.25 billion, enhancing its natural gas processing capabilities [6] - BP has fully restarted its Olympic Pipeline system after a month-long halt due to a leak [7] - ExxonMobil is considering acquiring Lukoil's 75% stake in the West Qurna-2 project in Iraq [7] Recent Market Activity - November was characterized by low volatility, with ICE Brent trading within a narrow range of $62.48 to $65.16 [9] - The OPEC+ meeting met market expectations, and attention is now focused on diplomatic efforts between Moscow and Kyiv that could influence future market conditions [9]