华泰期货：现货贴水扩大 难以阻碍铝价上涨

Key Points - The current spot price of A00 aluminum in East China is 21,800 CNY/ton, an increase of 90 CNY/ton from the previous trading day, with a spot premium of -50 CNY/ton [2][13] - The main contract for aluminum futures opened at 21,940 CNY/ton and closed at the same price, with a trading volume of 161,612 lots and an open interest of 249,248 lots [2][13] - As of December 3, 2025, the domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory is 596,000 tons, unchanged from the previous period, while LME aluminum inventory decreased by 2,500 tons to 533,400 tons [2][13] Aluminum Oxide - The spot price of alumina in Shanxi is recorded at 2,825 CNY/ton, while the FOB price from Australia is 314 USD/ton [3][14] - The main contract for alumina futures opened at 2,671 CNY/ton and closed at 2,636 CNY/ton, a decrease of 41 CNY/ton, with a trading volume of 204,508 lots [3][14] Aluminum Alloy - The procurement price for civilian aluminum is 16,900 CNY/ton, and for mechanical aluminum, it is 17,200 CNY/ton, with no change from the previous day [4][15] - The total theoretical cost for aluminum alloy is 21,069 CNY/ton, resulting in a theoretical profit of -269 CNY/ton [6][17] Market Analysis - The electrolytic aluminum market appears weak, with absolute prices rising and spot premiums expanding, which may limit price increases [7][18] - The macroeconomic outlook is positive, with aluminum prices following copper prices upward, and low absolute inventory levels may not exert negative pressure on prices [7][18] - The alumina market is facing downward pressure, with social inventory remaining high and no significant bullish factors in the fundamentals [8][19] Strategy - The strategy for aluminum is cautiously bullish, for alumina is neutral, and for aluminum alloy is cautiously bullish [9][20]