华泰期货：美铜维持高溢价 带动铜价整体上行

Market Overview - The main copper futures contract opened at 89,100 CNY/ton and closed at 89,210 CNY/ton, a 0.33% increase from the previous trading day. The night session saw the contract open at 90,070 CNY/ton and close at 90,760 CNY/ton, up 2.01% from the afternoon close [2][14]. Spot Market - SMM reported that the electrolytic copper spot price was quoted at a premium of 40-240 CNY/ton, with an average premium of 140 CNY/ton, up 20 CNY from the previous day. The price range for 1 electrolytic copper was 88,730-89,230 CNY/ton. Market sentiment improved, but supply in Shanghai remained tight, supporting high premiums [3][15]. Economic Indicators - The ADP reported a decrease of 32,000 jobs in the private sector for November, marking the largest decline since March 2023 and the second-largest since early 2020. The ISM services PMI for November rose to 52.6, the highest in nine months, surpassing expectations of 52.1 [4][16]. Mining Sector - Glencore's CEO announced that the Alumbrera project is expected to restart in Q4 2026, aiming for first production in H1 2028, with an estimated annual output of 75,000 tons of copper, 317,000 ounces of gold, and 1,000 tons of molybdenum. Glencore plans to increase its copper output to approximately 1.6 million tons over the next decade, despite a projected 40% decrease in output compared to 2018 [6][17]. Import and Export Data - Chile's customs reported that copper exports in November totaled 124,422 tons, with 29,112 tons exported to China. The total export of copper ore and concentrates was 1,054,487 tons, with 716,614 tons sent to China [7][18]. Consumption Trends - During the 14th Five-Year Plan, copper demand across various sectors is expected to show structural differentiation. The power sector is projected to see copper demand exceed 8 million tons by 2030, while the construction sector is expected to stabilize at around 1.58 million tons annually. The transportation sector's demand for copper is anticipated to surpass 2.4 million tons due to the growth of electric vehicles and charging infrastructure [8][19]. Inventory and Warehouse Data - LME warehouse stocks changed by 2,375 tons to 162,150 tons, while SHFE stocks decreased by 1,599 tons to 28,969 tons. As of December 1, domestic electrolytic copper stocks were at 159,000 tons, down 14,500 tons from the previous week [8][19]. Strategy Outlook - The current copper price is influenced by the CSPT group's announcement to reduce production capacity by 10%, which has led to price increases. However, if smelters indeed reduce output next year, it may alleviate supply tightness. The market is expected to remain in a state where prices are more likely to rise than fall, with recommendations to buy on dips for hedging [9][20][21].