华泰期货：纸浆再度上涨，需注意供需面尚未出现实质性改善

Core Viewpoint - The pulp futures price has significantly increased, with the main contract closing at 5458 CNY/ton, reflecting a rise of 3.53% [7]. Supply Summary - Recent announcements indicate several overseas pulp mills are undergoing maintenance, including Domtar's permanent closure of the Crofton mill in British Columbia, which had an annual capacity of 380,000 tons of bleached softwood pulp [8]. - Additionally, the Rauma mill of the Finnish group will temporarily halt production of 650,000 tons of softwood pulp starting December 15, with a gradual resumption expected by January 7 [8]. - The CEO of Finnish company Fibria has indicated preparations for significant production cuts at the Joutseno mill in 2026 due to anticipated market instability in early next year [8]. Demand Summary - The latest data shows a noticeable decrease in wood pulp inventory at European ports in October, indicating a slight improvement in demand [3]. - In China, despite the introduction of substantial paper production capacity this year, effective terminal demand remains insufficient, leading to an oversupply of paper and low operating rates at paper mills [3]. - The overall production of finished paper has not seen significant increases, and the excess capacity in the paper sector continues to compress industry profits [3]. - Downstream paper mills are exhibiting cautious procurement attitudes, resulting in historically high pulp inventory levels at domestic ports [3]. Market Analysis - Recent price increases in pulp futures are attributed to the market gradually digesting previous bearish factors, alongside short covering and disruptions in overseas supply [3]. - However, the lack of substantial improvement in supply and demand dynamics may limit further price increases [3]. - Attention is also drawn to the remaining issues with the needle warehouse receipts that could impact market conditions [3].