亨斯迈MDI装置意外停车，己内酰胺减产逐步落地价格拉涨

Industry Overview - The chemical sector's overall performance ranked 13th this week (2025/11/24-2025/11/28) with a change of 2.98%, positioned in the upper-middle of the market. The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.40%, while the ChiNext Index increased by 4.54%. The Shenwan Chemical sector outperformed the Shanghai Composite by 1.58 percentage points but underperformed the ChiNext by 1.56 percentage points [1]. Key Insights - The chemical industry is expected to continue its trend of divergence in 2025, with recommendations to focus on synthetic biology, pesticides, chromatography media, sweeteners, vitamins, light hydrocarbon chemicals, COC polymers, and MDI [1]. Synthetic Biology - A pivotal moment for synthetic biology is anticipated, driven by energy structure adjustments. Traditional chemical companies will face competition based on energy consumption and carbon tax costs. Companies that adopt green energy alternatives and leverage integrated and scaled advantages are likely to reduce energy costs and expand into larger overseas markets. The demand for bio-based materials is expected to surge, leading to potential profitability and valuation increases. Key companies to watch include Kasei Bio and Huaheng Bio [1]. Refrigerants - The implementation of quota policies is expected to usher in a high-growth cycle for third-generation refrigerants. Starting in 2024, the supply of these refrigerants will enter a "quota + continuous reduction" phase, while second-generation refrigerants will be phased out more rapidly. The demand for refrigerants is projected to grow steadily due to the development of heat pumps, cold chain markets, and the expansion of the air conditioning market in Southeast Asia. Companies with high quota shares, such as Juhua Co., Sanmei Co., Haohua Technology, and Yonghe Co., are expected to benefit significantly [2]. Electronic Specialty Gases - Electronic specialty gases are critical to the electronics industry and represent a core component of domestic industrialization. The domestic market is experiencing rapid upgrades in wafer manufacturing, but there is a mismatch with the fragmented and insufficient capacity of high-end electronic specialty gases. Companies that establish high-end capacity and possess substantial technical reserves are likely to seize opportunities for growth. Demand is driven by integrated circuits, displays, and photovoltaics. Key players include Jinhong Gas, Huate Gas, and China Shipbuilding Gas [3]. Light Hydrocarbon Chemicals - The trend towards light raw materials in the global olefin industry has been significant over the past decade, with a shift from heavy naphtha to lighter low-carbon alkanes like ethane and propane. This transition is characterized by shorter processes, higher yields, and lower costs. Light hydrocarbon chemicals also align with global low-carbon and energy-saving initiatives. Companies in this sector, such as Satellite Chemical, are expected to see their values reassessed [4]. COC Polymers - The industrialization of COC/COP (cyclic olefin copolymer) is accelerating in China, driven by domestic companies achieving breakthroughs after years of R&D. The shift of downstream industries, such as consumer electronics and new energy vehicles, to domestic sources is increasing the demand for these materials. The market is currently constrained by high prices, but domestic companies are expected to break through and expand market space. Key company to watch is Acolyte [5]. Potash Fertilizers - Potash fertilizer prices are expected to rebound as the industry enters a destocking cycle. Canpotex has withdrawn new quotes, and Nutrien has announced production cuts, leading to a short-term decline in supply. The termination of the Black Sea Grain Export Agreement has increased the prices of wheat and corn, boosting the demand for potash fertilizers. Companies like Yara International, Salt Lake Potash, and Zangge Mining are positioned to benefit from this trend [6]. MDI Market - The MDI market is characterized by oligopoly, with demand steadily improving due to the expansion of polyurethane applications. The global MDI production capacity is concentrated among five major chemical giants, which account for 90.85% of total capacity. Despite current price fluctuations, MDI remains a high-margin product. Companies like Wanhua Chemical are expected to benefit from a favorable supply structure as demand recovers [7]. Price Tracking - The top five price increases this week included methanol (East China) at 6.27%, NYMEX natural gas (futures) at 5.90%, and caprolactam (East China CPL) at 5.49%. The top five price decreases included liquid chlorine (East China) at -7.82% and propylene oxide (East China) at -5.85% [8]. Supply Side Tracking - This week, 168 chemical enterprises had their production capacities affected, with 9 new repairs and 3 restarts reported [9].