日银加息预期升温 汇价承压震荡

Core Viewpoint - The USD/JPY exchange rate is experiencing narrow fluctuations due to competing policy expectations, with a significant focus on the potential interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and the Federal Reserve's (Fed) rate cut expectations [1] Group 1: Market Reactions - The surge in interest rate hike expectations has led to a rise in Japanese government bond yields, while the 10-year US-Japan interest rate differential continues to narrow, limiting the upward movement of USD/JPY [2] - Concerns over "carry trade unwinding" have increased, as indicated by Bitcoin's rapid decline, reflecting investor caution amid tightening liquidity at year-end [2] - The uncertainty surrounding the Fed's policy path continues to disrupt the market, with a high probability of a rate cut in 2024, but significant fluctuations in December's rate cut expectations have been observed [2] Group 2: Divergence in Market Opinions - Wall Street shows a clear divide regarding the BoJ's actions in December, with Morgan Stanley considering a rate hike as the baseline scenario, while Goldman Sachs adopts a more cautious stance, suggesting that the BoJ may wait for more wage data [3] - The Japanese economy's fundamentals provide some support for policy adjustments, despite a temporary contraction in Q3 2025, with indicators such as labor market shortages and rising minimum wages suggesting a basis for wage increases [3] Group 3: Key Upcoming Events - Two critical events to watch are the release of the Japanese Tankan survey on December 15, which will influence BoJ policy decisions, and the Fed's December meeting, which could clarify rate cut expectations [4] - A potential divergence in policy between the BoJ and the Fed could fundamentally alter the valuation logic of USD/JPY, likely leading to a downward trend in the exchange rate if the BoJ initiates a rate hike while the Fed enters a rate cut cycle [4]