美指下探99跌势数据定方向

Core Viewpoint - The US dollar index is experiencing a critical period of direction choice, influenced by expectations of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve and mixed economic data [1][2] Group 1: Federal Reserve and Interest Rate Expectations - The market anticipates an 87% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December, a 24 percentage point increase from the previous month, driven by weak economic data and dovish comments from Fed officials [1] - The October meeting minutes revealed a close split on rate cuts, with a 4:5 ratio of support to opposition, making consensus in the upcoming December meeting crucial [1] - Goldman Sachs warns of a potential "hawkish cut," suggesting the Fed may cut rates while signaling no further easing [1] Group 2: Economic Data and Market Reactions - The ISM manufacturing PMI for November recorded at 48.2, indicating contraction for two consecutive months, which has heightened rate cut expectations [2] - The inflation index rose to 58.5, indicating persistent inflationary pressures despite the contraction in manufacturing [2] - The US government shutdown may lead to the inability to release key economic data, increasing volatility in the dollar [2] Group 3: Currency Movements and Market Dynamics - Non-US currencies are strengthening, with the euro surpassing the 1.16 mark against the dollar, driven by valuation recovery despite a contracting manufacturing PMI in the Eurozone [2] - The British pound is stabilizing around 1.33, with weaker rate cut expectations from the Bank of England compared to the Fed, continuing to exert pressure on the dollar [2] - Commodity currencies are benefiting from rising oil prices, which have returned to $65, diverting demand away from dollar assets [2] Group 4: Technical and Market Signals - The dollar index is currently below the 200-day moving average of 99.66, with limited resistance to further declines; breaking below 98.76 and 98.30 could trigger programmatic selling, targeting 97.81 [2] - Increased trading volume in dollar futures indicates heightened speculation, with a significant drop in open interest suggesting capital is leaving the dollar [2] Group 5: Institutional Perspectives - Bank of America believes that rate cut expectations are already priced in, and hawkish signals could push the index back to 100 [3] - Goldman Sachs argues that the dollar's premium against G10 currencies is limited to 3%-5%, indicating restricted rebound potential [3] - The dollar's medium to long-term trajectory will depend on the relative growth rates of the US economy compared to others; a stable US economy with lagging recoveries in Europe and the UK could restore the dollar's safe-haven status [3]