瑞郎政策避险博弈汇价震荡

Core Viewpoint - The USD/CHF exchange rate is influenced by the divergence in monetary policies between the Federal Reserve and the Swiss National Bank, alongside the strengthening of the Swiss franc as a safe-haven currency [1][2] Group 1: Monetary Policy Divergence - The Federal Reserve completed two rounds of interest rate cuts in 2025, maintaining the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75%, with a shift towards a "data-dependent" approach [1] - The Swiss National Bank faces a dilemma with a strong currency and low inflation, as the Swiss franc appreciated over 10% this year, while October CPI showed a 0.3% month-on-month decline [1][2] - Market expectations indicate a 100% probability of a rate cut by the Swiss National Bank in December, with a 69% chance of a 25 basis point cut to 0% [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The U.S. economy showed resilience with a third-quarter GDP growth rate of 2.1% year-on-year and a 3.0% increase in consumer spending, stabilizing the dollar index between 98-102 since July [2] - In contrast, Switzerland's third-quarter GDP growth was only 0.1% quarter-on-quarter, indicating pressure on the manufacturing sector [2] Group 3: Technical Analysis and Market Signals - The USD/CHF exchange rate has been consolidating between 0.80-0.81 since hitting a low of 0.7915 in September, with the MACD remaining in negative territory [2] - Key signals to watch include the Swiss National Bank's December decision, U.S. CPI data's impact on Federal Reserve policy, and changes in geopolitical risks [2] - Resistance levels are identified at 0.8050-0.8100, while support levels are at 0.7915-0.8000, with potential for a new trend if these levels are breached [2]