数据背离凸显美国经济复杂性 经济“K型分化”或重塑美联储政策路径

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights a significant decline in U.S. private sector employment, with a decrease of 32,000 jobs in November, marking the largest monthly drop since March 2023, and falling short of market expectations for an increase of 40,000 jobs [1] - The job losses were primarily driven by small businesses, which cut 120,000 jobs, while large companies added 90,000 jobs, indicating a stark contrast in resilience between different business sizes [2] - The employment market shows a high degree of structural differentiation, with sectors like education and healthcare adding jobs, while professional services, information services, manufacturing, finance, and construction experienced job losses [2] Group 2 - Wage growth is also cooling, with salaries for retained employees rising by 4.4% year-over-year, down 0.1 percentage points from October, and job switchers seeing a salary increase of 6.3%, the lowest since February 2021, indicating a weakening bargaining power in the labor market [2] - The divergence between ADP employment data and ISM services PMI, which rose to 52.6, reflects the complexity of the current U.S. economy, where large enterprises and core service sectors continue to expand while small businesses and manufacturing face ongoing pressure [3] - The ongoing "K-shaped" economic divergence is becoming more pronounced, with large enterprises and core services remaining resilient, while small businesses and manufacturing struggle, potentially influencing future monetary policy and global capital flows [6]